Suburban sprawl has been undermining core urban health across North America for decades, and the Greater Toronto Area has been no exception. This has been relatively accepted in the mainstream. What has not received equal attention, or the concern it deserves, is the idea of ‘peak oil.’ Peak oil, as described on Wikipedia, “is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.”
Sprawl exacts a heavy toll on our society. It means significantly higher infrastructure costs, longer commutes, higher health costs and the stretching, if not tearing, of our social fabric. These are only some of the ways in which suburban development wastes resources and drains wealth from our urban core. These are also clear present day costs without the context of ‘peak oil.’
Governments around the world look to the International Energy Agency (IEA) for guidance on future energy availability, cost and use. Late last year Fatih Birol, IEA’s Chief Economist, made a dramatic revision to the organization’s energy outlook. You can find this interview here.
In stark contrast to the IEA’s past optimistic projections, Birol states that they are expecting the world to hit peak conventional oil by 2020. This is a dramatic change. Birol explains that they shifted from basing projections on estimates to actually studying how much energy is left on the planet. The IEA report suggests closing the energy gap with highly polluting unconventional oil like that from the tar sands. Another section of the report says that using this carbon intensive energy would threaten an already unstable climate.
Assuming this influential body is correct, time will tell how significant energy costs will become in the next ten to fifteen years. However, it seems that if oil production really does peak, it will makes last year’s $150 per barrel of oil look like a walk in the park. Heating larger, detached suburban homes and commuting greater distances would become that much more expensive. We all know it is not a great idea to chew up prime farmland and replace it with asphalt. But sprawl will look particularly foolish with skyrocketing energy prices pushing up the cost of food for the millions who live in the GTA and who are without less expensive, local sustainable food options.
Jordy Gold is the OpenCity Projects Editor and is a sustainability consultant. He has worked and studied in Geneva, Lund, Chiang Mai and Phuket. Jordy learned from the Swedes how to cycle in all conditions and can be seen on his bike 365 days a year throughout the core of Toronto.
photo by Payton Chung
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